Investment Division·Medium-termActive
Halving-Cycle Positioning
Scale crypto exposure up in the 12–18 months after a halving and scale down as on-chain indicators signal a cycle top.
- Desk
- Digital Assets (Crypto)
- Book
- Halving cycle
- Horizon
- Medium-term · 1 – 5 years
- Last reviewed
- 11 Sept 2026
Thesis
Four prior cycles show a repeating accumulation–growth–euphoria–decline pattern tied to Bitcoin halvings. Nobody calls the exact top, but stepping risk down as indicators (MVRV, Puell, futures funding) overheat together protects gains with discipline.
Rules
Entry
Begin accumulating within 6 months after a halving; step up while MVRV < 1.5.
Exit
Sell 20% tranches as MVRV crosses 3.0 / 3.5 / 4.0; fully exit the book when 2 of 3 top indicators trigger.
Sizing
Book ≤ 25% of desk value.
Risk limits
- Zero leverage
- Non-BTC/ETH ≤ 40% of book
KPIs
- Retain ≥ 60% of peak-cycle gains after the cycle ends
Instruments
- BTC, ETH and up to 5 top-20 assets by market cap
Digital assets#crypto#cycle#on-chain