Investment Division·Medium-termActive
Cyclical Sector Rotation
Overweight sectors entering the favourable phase of the cycle (rates, credit, public investment, exports) and cut back as that phase passes.
- Desk
- Public Equities
- Book
- Sector cycle
- Horizon
- Medium-term · 1 – 5 years
- Last reviewed
- 11 Sept 2026
Thesis
Vietnam's market is highly cyclical and dominated by a few large sectors: banks, real estate, steel, brokers, retail. Reading the cycle phase correctly (monetary policy, public investment, commodity prices) matters more than single-stock selection.
Rules
Entry
A written cycle thesis with 3 confirming indicators (e.g. interbank rates, credit growth, public disbursement). Enter when ≥ 2 of 3 confirm.
Exit
Exit when indicators reverse or the valuation target is hit; stop at 20% below average cost.
Sizing
Max 3 sector themes at once, each ≤ 35% of the book.
Risk limits
- 25% book drawdown → cut exposure to 50% and review
- No margin in this book
KPIs
- Rolling 3-year return > VN-Index + 3%/yr
- Thesis hit-rate ≥ 55%
Instruments
- Sector leaders, sector ETFs where available
Vietnam equitiesGlobal equitiesBonds & term deposits#equities#vietnam#cycle#macro